Berhati-hatilah Indonesia!
Oleh: Karim Raslan
Dalam beberapa minggu terakhir, Indonesia memamerkan tingkat pengaruhnya sejak beberapa petinggi luar negeri mulai dari Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel hingga Menteri Luar Negeri AS Hillary Clinton berkunjung ke Jakarta.
Malah, Clinton – dengan pernyataan pembukanya tentang Hak Asasi Manusia yang terjadi di republik ini – telah memuji berlebihan kepada Indonesia atas keikutsertaan dalam upaya memediasi sengketa ASEAN dengan China tentang Laut China Selatan.
Hal ini mungkin telah dilakukan dan diamati oleh China (yang Clinton telah pergi melawat juga kemudiannya) tetapi ini juga menunjukkan bahwa kerja keras Indonesia (khususnya Menteri Luar Negeri Marty Natelagawa) dalam mengupayakan diplomasi tingkat regional serta kepemimpinannya sedang diakui dunia.
Namun Indonesia tidak boleh membiarkan dirinya terlena akan pujian dunia. Ledakan sumber daya alam global yang paling tinggi dipasok dari Indonesia sedang mengalami penyusutan: batubara, misalnya tidak lagi menjadi proposisi menguntungkan seperti sebelumnya.
Angka perdagangan yang dimiliki Indonesia juga tidak menunjukkan kebaikan. Angka ekspor di bulan Juli turun 7,27% menjadi US$16.15 miliar. Di sisi yang sama, tingkat defisit perdagangan Indonesia cenderung naik menjadi US$1.33 miliar di bulan Juni.
Menurunnya permintaan dari China dan India serta munculnya komoditi alternatif yang lebih murah seperti shale gas, membuat pemilik bisnis batubara di Indonesia mulai merasakan cubitan karena harga terus merosot.
Menambah kompleksitas situasi adalah tren penurunan yang dalam hal ini Bank Indonesia mencadangkan devisanya dari US$116.41 miliar di akhir April hingga US$106.56 miliar pada akhir Juli.
Indonesia sedang mengalami banyak dilema yang sama dialami oleh Brazil – bagian dari klub BRIC yang sangat menginginkan untuk bergabung.
Seperti Indonesia, Brazil bagaikan kesayangan dunia: Suami Hillary atau Mantan Presiden AS Bill Clinton pada akhir Agustus telah memuji raksasa Amerika Selatan ini dengan mengungkapkan bahwa Brazil adalah yang paling menjanjikan dalam menaikkan taraf perekonomian dari sumber daya alam (baca: bijih besi, kacang kedelai, dan minyak).
Namun bila sedikit menggali lebih dalam, gambaran tersebut tidak sepenuhnya indah bagi tanah kelahiran Pele dan Gisele Bundchen. Brazil juga mengalami penurunan permintaan dari China, bahkan lebih fundamental yaitu kegagalan menginvestasikan produktivitas serta infrastrukturnya.
Berdasarkan Financial Times, survei bank sentral dari para ekonom pasar ditemukan prediksi pertumbuhan PDB berada hanya 1,64%, dibandingkan dengan 1,85% empat minggu lalu. Produksi industri dipandang telah jatuh di angka 1,78% tahun ini, dan konsumsi domestik, sebagai sumber lain pertumbuhan ekonomi, mengalami kenaikan hanya 2,4% dari tahun ke tahun, jauh jika dibandingkan 7,3% di tahun 2010.
Nilai ekspor yang terlalu turun sebesar 2,5% pada kuartal kedua, adalah penyusutan pertama sejak akhir tahun 2009.
Menyusutnya pasokan bahan-bahan dasar akan kembali menghantui anda, tidak peduli berapa banyak kekayaan mineral yang dimiliki negara anda.
Analis Tony Daltorio memperkirakan bahwa Brazil hanya menghabiskan 2% dari PDB untuk biaya infrastruktur dan logistik yang menyumbang 12%-15% dari PDB. Tekanan pada infrastruktur cenderung meningkat seiring pertumbuhan kelas menengah.
Pada kondisi yang sama, sebagaimana pendapat Financial Times, kebijakan reformasi yang diperlukan—termasuk persoalan pajak dan undang-undang pekerja—cenderung diperlambat karena dunia politik yang terus berkelahi dan semu.
Sekarang apa yang bisa kita lihat dari semua ini?
Seperti Brazil, infrastruktur juga merupakan masalah yang berat bagi Indonesia. Lupakan tentang kebanggaan, sejumlah kegagalan seperti jalur tol Trans-Jawa yang tidak pernah selesai tepat waktu membuat banyak warga Indonesia yang seharusnya sudah bisa keluar dari kemiskinan di masa depan harus ketinggalan kesempatan.
Tidak ada satupun yang menyangkal potensi Indonesia dan Brazil, tetapi anda tidak bisa menepis perasaan bahwa ekspor sumber daya alam-berbasis model ekonomi yang telah diambil kedua negara ini sejauh ini telah kehilangan uapnya.
Jika Indonesia tidak segera menanggapi tantangan saat ini, Jakarta tidak akan segemerlap dan sebegitu menggodanya untuk persinggahan diplomatik. Seperti yang sering anda dengar: “No Money, No Honey”. Tidak ada uang, tidak ada sayang.
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